GCSE 2024 predictions reveal Buckinghamshire as top Maths performer, Isle of Wight trails

As students across England prepare for GCSE results day on 22 August, a recent study has highlighted the counties expected to excel in mathematics this year. 

The research, conducted by the education platform Calcworkshop, analysed data from 2019 to 2023, identifying the regions where students are most likely to achieve top grades in maths.

The study examined the performance of 16-year-olds across England, focusing on the percentage of students who achieved grades seven, eight, and nine in GCSE maths. These grades are considered the highest attainable in the subject, making them a key indicator of academic success.

Top Performing Counties

According to the findings, Buckinghamshire is expected to lead the way, with an impressive 34.1% of students likely to secure grades seven to nine in GCSE maths. This figure is 54% above the national average, solidifying Buckinghamshire's reputation as a stronghold for mathematical excellence. The county's most successful year was 2021, when 10.4% of students achieved the coveted grade nine.

Greater London follows as the second most successful region, with 30.1% of students projected to achieve high marks. In 2021, 8.6% of students in Greater London secured a grade nine, marking it as the region's best-performing year within the study period.

Berkshire ranks third, with 29.9% of students expected to attain top grades in maths. Like the top two regions, Berkshire also saw its best results in 2021, with 8.8% of students achieving a grade nine.

Other counties expected to perform well include Surrey (29.8%) and Hertfordshire (29.5%), which have consistently outperformed the national average in recent years. The study highlights a concentration of high achievers in these southern regions, suggesting they are well-positioned to continue their success in 2024.

Lower Performing Counties

On the other end of the spectrum, the Isle of Wight is projected to have the lowest percentage of students achieving top grades in GCSE maths. With only 15.4% of students expected to receive grades seven to nine, the Isle of Wight falls significantly below the national average. The county's weakest performance was in 2019 when only 1.4% of students secured a grade nine.

Cornwall, Staffordshire, and Lincolnshire also rank low in the study, with less than 18% of students likely to achieve top grades. These regions are joined by Cumbria and Merseyside, where students are similarly expected to struggle to secure the highest marks.

Commenting on the findings, Jenn Stull, founder of Calcworkshop, said:

“GCSE results day is just around the corner. In the coming weeks, students across the country will be preparing to enjoy the fruits of their labour and receive the grades that will dictate their future, whether they choose to pursue apprenticeships at college or A-Levels at Sixth Form.  

“This study reveals the counties most likely to exceed expectations in GCSE maths. Based on high-scoring students between 2019 and 2023, Buckinghamshire has been named the number one maths genius hotspot in England, followed by Greater London and Berkshire.  

“Additionally, it is interesting to see southern counties dominate the top ten maths genius capitals. In turn, northern counties, such as Cumbria and Merseyside, are found in the bottom ten. This suggests that, in these northern counties, a greater emphasis should be placed on maths learning and revision from 2025 onwards.”